COLA Report 49

Using SST Anomalies to Predict Flood and Drought Conditions for the Caribbean

A. Chen, A. Roy, J. McTavish, M. Taylor and L. Marx

September 1997


Abstract

Rainfall patterns in the Caribbean are ivestigated with particular emphasis on perids of flood and drought. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the rainfall in May-June-July (MJJ), one of the two rainy seasons, reveals a significant component having periodicity similar to that of El Niño. Statistical and graphical analyses confirm that the heaviest MJJ rainfall occurs in the year following an El Niño event. Numerical experiments, using the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) general circulation model and observed sea surface temperature (SST) boundary conditions, confirm a connection between the Pacific and Caribean SST anomalies and the MJJ precipitation. Statistical and EOF analyses also suggest a link between Climate Prediction Center NINO3 and NINO4 SST and the Caribbean SST anomaly. Results of an investigation of the Caribbean wind stress patterns could be a manifestation of an El Niño type signal, but other explanations are possible. The various results indicate that SST measurements might be employed as a predictor for Caribbean flood and drought conditions.

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last update: 10 November 1997
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